The Modern War of Errors

In the old days before the internet it was easy to control what we believed. There were few sources, and those sources were largely controlled.

When we were in error with respect to reality it was sometimes due to believing something that was not true and perhaps more significantly, not believing something that was true. A truth we never heard was a truth we could not know or believe.

For example, we now know that President Kennedy's assassination was a setup. He was killed with the assistance of people he trusted to protect him. It was an example of a Deep State hit.

For years we did not know that "kooky" idea was true, and those few who believed it were gaslighted and called crazy. Low information people believed the establishment narrative while rare high information people believed the Kennedy assassination was treason.

With the invention of the internet we now have it easier to be a high information person. Now most people believe the Kennedy assassination was treason.

As we are flooded with information there are two types of people: High information people who soak up a large amount of information, and low information people who soak up only small amounts of information.

Now with more information we are even more subjected to two types of error:

Type 1 Error

Believing something that is not true. High information people are subject to this.

Type 2 Error

Not believing something that is true. Low information people are subject to this.

Those that soak up only a little are those we might call "low information voters". They only see a little, so that is an opportunity for very wealthy interests to flood the system with their desired information. Low information types only see the information that is financially pushed.

A good example of this is the covid vax. It was pushed by governments, NGOs, and pharmaceutical forces that were both financial and massively pervasive. Most people only saw the information they flooded the system with. These low information types made their medical decision based on the small sample of information they actually were exposed to and got themselves vaxxed.

In contrast, those with high information learned things that were beyond what was being pushed and did not get vaxxed.

Low information people were subject to the type 2 error of believing the fake pushed narrative and got vaxxed. Some even believe to this day that they still need to get boosters in spite of the massive deaths from the vax.

High information people were subject to the type 1 error and may have tried inaccurate cures, but at least they did not get vaxxed. Some even believe to this day that there was no such thing as a virus or covid.

High information people had more total noise but also had more signal. The world was more complicated for them. They also were more persecuted by low information people.

Low information people had less signal but also had less noise. The world was simple for them. The escaped persecution but they also were far more likely for them or their loved ones to die or be damaged by the vaxx,

Here we are again today. A lot of information is being pushed to support the war in Iran.

Low information people are busy and only have time to be aware of the information being pushed. Vast financial forces are pushing for the war and information is tightly controlled. All they see are reasons for the war. Since "This is war!" people who do not agree are demonized.

Since "This is war!" people who do not agree with the war and the vast financial and government forces supporting it are demonized as subversives and Iran/Muslim supporters who like to see women in burkas etc.. They can even be called tools of the Islamic forces or traitors.

Does this sound familiar?

High information people are looking at much wider sources of information, which the internet with Telegram and X make possible. However there is also false information put out there. They can sometimes be fooled.

Low information people can also be fooled with false information. The establishment narrative is simpler for people to digest, but like the Kennedy assassination narrative, it can be a lie serving the establishment and also be totally false.

This is the same game that was played with covid. This is the same game that has been played many times on mankind but now it is greatly enhanced by the information technology.

There are also additional new technology risks that shift errors into type 2:

People are shifted into being low information people (and thus into Type 2 errors) by the technology of engagement. All sorts of addictions including drugs, videos, porn, shopping, video games and violence are fed by the profit motive online. In addition food addictions and alcohol addictions are fed by the wide and effortless availability of them thanks to the internet augmented markets as well as more developed grocery marketplace diversity.

People are also shifted into being low information Type 2 error people by being fully engaged in their professional lives - earning a living in spite of ever increasing taxes and costs of living. It is not easy to buy a home or raise a family as it was before the distractions of career and entertainment and profit motive augmented addictions existed.

People are also being shifted into being low information people by the advent of AI.

Well done AI hoaxes make new information less believable. General distrust of all information shifts people into being strongly low information people and thus prone to disbelieve things that are real as they throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Of course the establishment is very happy if people are shifted back into Type 2 low information mode. It makes the information and thus people easier to control. Vulnerability to Type 2 error cause people to disbelieve things that are real. It is easy to discount any new information as being AI generated, much to the joy of people caught committing crimes and then saying it was just a fake AI.

The establishment narrative pushers have huge financial interests in making AI hoaxes pervasive in the information space. People are paid to create pro war propaganda. False flags are standard tools of war propaganda. With controlled flooding of the information space with the desired narrative by huge financial or fanatic interests, there is no perfectly reliable source.

Fortunately there are a couple of saving graces from this error assault: Cellphone camera ubiquity and vast data availability.

Not all sites allow freedom to post material live and uncensored, or from near real time sources. However those that do are a well-spring of uncensored uploaded events from a plethora of independent observers. Telegram is one such source - and the world's largest. When an event occurs numerous viewers record and upload it. AI takes time, has delays, and so does propaganda. Near real time multiple individuals uploads tend to be genuine.

Another saving grace is the internet's augmented ability to do research and analyze material which forms a coherent picture. The ease of access to real records which would be too time consuming for low information sources becomes available to motivated high information researchers. High information people have access to this vast ocean of raw data. X's community notes helps with this analysis. Lies are often exposed by this, although sometimes it becomes a tug of war between real and false sources. A narrative that makes comprehensive sense in the light of examination with ground truth sources generally prevails.

There are powerful economic forces that push people into being low information and making Type 2 errors wherein they fail to believe what is true. In contrast there is little to no financial incentives to create high information people making type 1 errors. These type 1 errors of believing something that is not true such as flat earthers or bogus cancer cures are generally self limiting in that they may harm the individual but less often anyone else. Someone might be selling some bogus cure but it doesn't take long before harmed individuals post their experience with it.

Historically the vast majority of us have been low information people committing Type 2 errors of disbelief. The internet made high information Type 1 people far more common. Depending on our life choices we will each be vulnerable to either Type 1 or Type 2 errors.

Today there are financial forces that push us into restricted information space and make Type 2 errors to their benefit. That is the information battlefield we live on, and it is pervasive. We can consciously watch out for these errors prone to our type. Knowing this helps us to minimize errors and improve our signal to noise ratio for our beliefs. Knowing this helps us have our beliefs reflect reality. We each participate in this whether we are aware or not, whether we like it or not. We will continue to be in an information battlefield as long as censorship is limited and freedom of speech is kept alive.