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The Final Countdown: China Russia Ukraine and Israel...

Dagny
3 hours ago
19 min read

šŸ‘ I see you: Russian satellite hot on the trail of NATO orbital spy feeding info to Ukraine

Ā 

OSINT trackers have spotted Russia’s Cosmos 2612 satellite approaching to within a few km of ICEYE-X36 (NORAD ID 59103) – a Finnish SAR satellite providing Earth observation data to the US government and military, other militaries, and defense contractors.


ā™¦ļø Swiss real-time space domain awareness tracker s2a systems calculates that the Russian spacecraft was just ~5km from ICEYE’s craft as they flew over South America on Sunday, perfectly matching its trajectory at speeds of ~27.3k km/h, 550 km above the planet.


ā™¦ļøWith the Russian craft matching ICEYE’s geometric plane, it may prove difficult, if not impossible, for the Finnish satellite to escape.


Russia hasn't disclosed much about Cosmos 2612 since launching it from Plesetsk in April, but Western observers suspect it's designed to approach other satellites, inspect them and gather intelligence.


ā—ļøGetting this close opens up some interesting possibilities.Ā 


āž”ļøĀ  Positioned at close range, the satellite could glean vital electronic and operational data, intercept and analyze radio frequencies, signal patterns and telemetry, map communications architecture to ease jamming, and deduce exactly when and how often Ukraine requests real-time imagery.


āž”ļøĀ  If it’s equipped with a close-range EW package, it could even engage in signal spoofing, inject malicious telemetry data to turn ICEYE’s cameras away from Ukraine, fall into safe mode, burn fuel needlessly, or disrupt signal flows.


Reports on the Russian satellite’s stalking of the ICEYE spacecraft comes in the wake ofĀ Starlink’sĀ decision to introduce speed caps on the Ukrainian military’s systems, which have seriously hampered its offensive capabilities.





And suddenly Putin wants Trump and Xi to meet...

Russian Satellite Threatens Quietly Ukraine

According to current orbital elements, the Russian #KOSMOSĀ 2612 satellite is now within 1-2 km of #ICEYE-X36. Based on current elements, it might come within meters of the latter within a few hours from now. This is an #RPOĀ without consent. (cont.)

–Revodude 1 hour ago +1 / -0

Pretty much in sinc. Basically saying that we can take you anytime we want. Nobody wants space debris, so maybe you shut it down. The question is: who is really in control of the satellite? Probably not Ukraine.


Big Tech wants 1M+ orbital data centers but fears they may be attacked

Facing public scrutiny over plans to build noisy, power-sucking, water-hogging AI host facilities in rural areas, tech CEOs are looking into the feasibility of putting them in space, where, theoretically, they’d have all the space and solar power they’d ever need.

Paying little mind to the risk of creating so much space junk it effectively seals humanity in on Earth forever (a phenomenon known as Kessler syndrome), Big Tech fears satellites may come under attack due to wars back on Earth, targeted by missiles, jamming, cyber or directed energy weapons. Russia, China, the US and India are known to possess or be working on such capabilities.

šŸ’¬ā€œAnything of value that you put up in space increases the potential payoff of attacking space infrastructure,ā€ astropolitics researcher Bleddyn Bowen told Bloomberg. ā€œWe’d rather not have a shooting war in space because we’d all lose quite a lot.ā€

US Space Force assures it has ā€œcapabilities to protect and defend US space interests,ā€ potentially including orbiting data centers, ā€œif directed by appropriate decision-makers.ā€

Keppler launched the first elements of a dedicated space-based data center into low-Earth orbit in January with Axiom Space’s help. On October 2, SpaceX launched a Google data center test satellite.

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and his private space company Blue Origin wants government permission to launch up to 50k such satellites. Elon Musk wants to put up to 1M in orbit.

Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell fears that in a conflict scenario, adversaries could not only target each other’s constellations, but deliberately create so much space junk that envisioned Sun-synchronous orbital trajectories become essentially ā€œunusable.ā€

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Trump nullifies his own Russia sanctions bill in under a month

Trump has signed an executive order waiving key provisions of the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act — which he only signed into law on September 18.

The waiver includes:

šŸ”“ The 500% tariffs on Russian goods imported into the US

šŸ”“ The 100% secondary tariffs on the top 5 purchasers of Russian oil and gas — directly aimed at China and India

The Graham Act didn’t even survive a month before Trump started tearing it down. The reason is simple: like most of US’s grand sanction schemes, it ended up hurting the US far more than it hurt Russia or Iran.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime



Trump says Zelensky targets refineries to keep the war going — 'he probably never wanted peace'

President Trump has lashed out at Volodymyr Zelensky on Truth Social, blaming him for the global diesel crisis and accusing him of prolonging the war to keep Western cash flowing.

"With all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now," he wrote.

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šŸ—£ Trump casts Zelensky as obstacle to peace: ā€˜He doesn’t want to settle’

President Donald Trump delivered a sweeping attack on Zelensky, arguing that any eventual settlement may have to happen without him.

šŸ’¬ ā€œIf they’re gonna end up with a settlement of some kind, they’re not gonna do it with him. He doesn’t want to settle. He says he wants to settle, but he doesn’t.ā€

Trump also said Ukraine had lost enormous numbers of men during the conflict, while blaming Zelensky for standing in the way of a settlement.

šŸ’¬ ā€œI find Zelensky to be more difficult to deal with than Putin,ā€ Trump added.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime



šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗāš”ļø — Zelensky stated in an interview that Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian oil refineries in Russia.

@Intelslava

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗāš”ļø — The Ryazan Oil Refinery caught fire as a result of an attack by Ukrainian Air Force drones. A warehouse at another enterprise was also damaged, according to the governor.

@Intelslava



šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦āš”ļø — U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Ukrainian embassy that, in the event of further strikes against Russian energy facilities, the United States will immediately cease all intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

This was reported by The Washington Post, citing a source.

"The warnings were so extensive that everyone with a Ukrainian-sounding name received a call," the source said.

@Intelslava



šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦āš”ļø — Putin will be ready to give the order not to strike Ukraine on the day of the elections, if Kiev decides to hold them – Peskov

Peskov added that the 60 days that Zelenskyy is demanding are not needed to hold elections, but rather "to gather strength, heal wounds, and continue the war."

@Intelslava



šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗšŸ§Š Ukraine’s Starlink connection goes haywire amid latest Russian assault

Besides not being warned in advance by NATO ā€˜partners’ on Russia’s overnight missile strikes in Kiev, Ukrainian forces on the ground have reportedly faced ā€œdisrupted frontline operationsā€ after new technical restrictions were put in place on the use of Elon Musk’s satellite internet service.

Starlink terminals used to operate drones flying 160 km/h+ suffered ā€œsignal failures,ā€ disrupting multiple missions Wednesday morning, Ukrainian officials and military personnel told FT.

šŸ’¬ ā€œLogistics at the frontline and middle strikes are badly limited,ā€ a senior Ukrainian official said. There was ā€œno warning,ā€ with the restrictions just becoming apparent ā€œin the middle of the night,ā€ they said.

Defense Ministry aide Serhii Beskrestnov said it was obvious ā€œthis action is not coincidental and is related to the current political situation.ā€

šŸ‘‰ Musk has not made any formal announcement on the restrictions, but did recently accuse Zelensky of going ā€œtoo farā€ by ignoring Trump’s energy ceasefire demands, and saying it’s ā€œtime for Ukraine to find a new leader.ā€

Trump insisted Tuesday that the US continues to do intel sharing with Ukraine.

āž”ļø Musk previously restricted Ukraine’s Starlink access by geofencing coverage to limit Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia. The US only once briefly paused intel sharing with Ukraine – in March 2025, after an explosive televised Trump-Zelensky exchange at the White House during which Trump accused his counterpart of ā€œgambling with World War Three.ā€

The immediate chaos at the front once US intel and technological support are put on pause appears to confirm what Russian officials have been saying for almost five years – that this is a NATO proxy war that would end immediately if the West pulled its support for Kiev.

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Ukrainian commanders compare Starlink slowdown to ā€˜nuclear strike’

ā€œThis is comparable to a nuclear strike against us. All operations are on hold. This will cost many of our lives,ā€ a Ukrainian officer told Politico, commenting on the restrictions Ukraine’s drone operators are experiencing using Elon Musk’s satellite internet tech.

The officer said ā€œall Starlink and Starshield terminalsā€ used by Ukraine have been hit with a 100 km/h speed limit, confirming that the slowdown was deliberate.

šŸ’¬ ā€œWe can no longer fight effectively to support our infantry on the battlefield. We can no longer strike multiple-launch rocket systems, North Korean-supplied heavy self-propelled artillery positioned deep behind enemy lines, ammunition depots, command centers and other targets,ā€ they added, failing to mention the strikes which also regularly target civilians.

A Ukrainian defense ministry official said the speed cap ranges from 72-161 km/h, ā€œdepending on the specific vehicle and unit.ā€ At these speeds, it’s much easier for Russia’s multilayered air defense network to engage them.

šŸ‘‰ European officials slammed SpaceX over the ā€œpoliticizedā€ move, with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski asking ā€œbig manā€ Elon Musk whether he was ā€œplaying politics with [his] products again,ā€ and warning that ā€œEuropean customers…are watching.ā€

Musk and SpaceX have yet to comment on the speed cap. Last week, Musk said it was ā€œtime for Ukraine to get a new leaderā€ while reacting to Trump’s criticism of Zelensky for continuing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and raising global diesel prices.

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šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗUkraine’s air defenses fail to intercept a single Russian ballistic missile in overnight strikes

Ā 

Russian Iskander-M missiles and S-400s repurposed for ground attack missions slipped through Ukraine’s defenses unmolested, with hits reported across 25 locations, and ā€œdebrisā€ recorded at eight more, the Ukrainian Air Force’s official Telegram channel admitted.


The missiles were reportedly launched in combination with Iskander-K cruise missiles and 269 Geran-type strike UAVs (59 of them jet powered) as well as Banderol, Gerbera and other drones. The Air Force claims to have brought down 247 of the non-ballistic targets using aviation, AA troops, EW, unmanned systems and mobile fire groups.


But reporting, photos and videos from the ground tell a different story, with Russia hammering Ukraine’s energy grid,Ā industrial infrastructure, ports, bridges, logistics, and military infrastructureĀ for months on end, leaving entire sectors of the economy on the brink of collapse, and the war effort increasingly crippled.


On Monday, Ukrainian telecoms giant Datagroup announced a devastating Russian night strike on its main data center, saying ā€œrepairing it and resuming operations are impossible.ā€


Ukraine’s troubles have been compounded by its Patriot missile interceptorsĀ running dry, and by Elon Musk’s decision to slap speed restrictions on its Starlink connection – whose strategic impact has been compared toĀ a ā€˜nuclear strike’ by local commanders.




šŸ›° Musk criticized, and Obama praised for curbing Ukraine’s military capabilities


Elon Musk has come under fire over Starshield disruptions that have hampered Ukraine’s drone warfare. But Musk says the decision rests with the White House.


šŸ‘‰ Musk drew a distinction between Starlink and Starshield, stressing on X that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, while Starlink, operated by SpaceX, is a commercial service that cannot be used for offensive military operations.


Earlier, the Ukrainian military complained that Starlink terminals mounted on drones targeting Russia stopped working when moving at speeds exceeding 160 km/h.


The ban followed Zelensky’s criticism of Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and his threat to proceed with strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine’s military subsequently received no early warning of a Russian ballistic missile attack. Hours later, Ukrainian Starlink connections were throttled.


Having pitted Ukraine against Russia, the US government has repeatedly used military aid as leverage to keep the Kiev regime under control. Following the US-orchestrated 2014 coup in Ukraine, the Obama administration barred lethal military assistance, keeping Kiev dependent on Washington’s political whims.






šŸ‡«šŸ‡·šŸ”„ Macron tours Gulf states while France burns from protests


French President Emmanuel Macron is on a three-day official visit to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, accompanied by the heads of energy companies.


The official goal of the tour is to secure additional oil supplies from the Gulf states, easing energy prices for households and farmers who have been hit by a 30–50% rise in petrol and diesel costs. Supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have pushed up global oil prices, adding to growing frustration at home.


That frustration has already spilled into the streets. What began as student demonstrations over education conditions has grown into nationwide protests over soaring fuel prices and the cost of living, putting further pressure on Macron's government.


And this isn't the first time the French president has found himself elsewhere while protests rage. On October 17, as demonstrators clashed with policeĀ and acts of vandalism spread, Macron was spotted enjoying a Celine Dion concert with his wife.


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šŸ‡®šŸ‡± Israeli settlers ambush European diplomats during olive harvest visit in occupied West Bank

Seven settlers on ATVs surrounded the convoy of vehicles, carrying European diplomats from France, Belgium, and Poland during an olive harvest visit to the Christian Palestinian village of Taybeh, near Ramallah, according to Israeli and Palestinian media.

They demanded IDs, threw stones, and smashed the window of a Belgian consulate car.Ā 

Mayor Bernard Baudoux of the French city of Aulnoye-Aymeries was among those injured.

The Cradle cites Amit Orfali, an activist who was part of the delegation, as saying the attackers threatened to kill them.

The assault came a day after Washington Post journalist Heidi Levine, a US citizen, was injured in a similar attack by settlers rampaging amid the Palestinians’ traditional olive harvest.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

Rubio on West Bank settler violence: 'Not a good look'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has addressed the attack on an American photojournalist in the West Bank, calling the images disturbing while defending the administration's earlier decision to lift sanctions on Israeli settlers.

šŸ’¬ "There was video of that. The whole thing was just disturbing. Not a good look."

Earlier, the US has refused to demand an investigation into the deaths of 9 of its own citizens, and it lifted the very sanctions that were meant to restrain the groups involved.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/76330?Ā 

šŸ“¹ Photo journalist lady robbed and badly beaten by Israeli settlers while covering the olive harvest — while IDF provides cover with machine guns

Heidi Levine, a freelance photojournalist for the Washington Post, was attacked by masked Israeli settlers while covering the olive harvest in the West Bank village of Abu Falah.

Roughly 80 settlers attacked Palestinian harvesters and journalists. Levine was knocked down and kicked for at least 10 minutes, even after identifying herself as an American journalist.

Witnesses say the IDF provided cover with tear gas and machine guns while the settlers beat her "nearly to death." A Palestinian man, armed only with a slingshot, intervened to save the journalists' lives.

"Will our government leaders ever take a stand? I would tag the President but it's pointless," Marjorie Taylor Greene commented on X.

This comes just weeks after the US Senate voted down a resolution that asked for a report on the nine American citizens killed in the West Bank.

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Israeli narrative on it:

According to the council, theĀ Palestinian AuthorityĀ "led hundreds of anarchists and terrorists into a direct confrontation with Israelis near Abu Falah, all under the cover of the olive harvest.""Footage from the scene shows terrorists launching fireworks directly at people and hurling stones at Israelis, while journalists stand behind them, documenting this deliberate provocation," the council said.Ā 

That was after the attack by the "Settlers".


šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡¬Egypt’s National Defense Council pledges full support for Saudi Arabia

Egypt’s National Defense Council, chaired by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has decided to provide all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its security, stability, territorial integrity, and Islamic holy sites amid escalating regional attacks.

The council also declared full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and agreed to intensify diplomatic efforts with regional and international partners to reduce tensions and resolve regional crises peacefully.

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Scott Ritter:

šŸ’¬ ā€œHe’ll drop the MOAB [mother of all bombs], it will go boom, it will look great. He’ll declare victory,ā€ Scott Ritter speculatedĀ on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast.

The problem, Ritter explained, is that the destructive potential of a MOAB may be highly exaggerated, and that this type of ordnance is unlikely to pose any real threat to any of Iran’s underground sites – just as the US failed to take out the Iranian nuclear sites during Operation Midnight Hammer last year.

He also suggested that Iran may play along with Trump’s charade and let him use the MOAB deployment as a face-saving way to finally exit from the war in the Gulf.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime



France - Shock Poll Finds Nearly Half of French Muslims Would Consider Emigrating if Marine Le Pen Wins Presidency. šŸ‘


Birthright citizenship for migrants' children is costing American taxpayers a STAGGERING $150.7 BILLION every year — Just The News... This is what the Supreme Court just voted to keep going...😔STOP THE FREEKING FRAUD.šŸ›‘.. American Taxpayers are being FLEECED !!https://greatawakening.win/p/1ATVexWnpY/holy-crap-birthright-citizenship/c/


šŸ”Æā˜ ļøĀ Where’s the beef? Israeli 3D printed ā€˜meats’, ā€˜fish’ hit US store shelves

Israeli government-backed food tech, bioprinting, gene editing and ā€˜alternative protein’ company Steakholder Foods says its new Perfecta brand simulated meat products are now available at select retail locations in the northeastern United States.

ā—ļøTouting its offerings as ā€œa new standard in plant-based eatingā€ that matches the ā€œtaste, texture, and authentic experience of enjoying a whole cut of meat,ā€ the company’s products include simulated marble steak, filet mignon, chicken breast, salmon and white fish patties.

Made through the layered assembly of cells and proteins in a lab, products are made of soy and wheat flour, protein and fibers, seed oils, natural fats, methylcellulose (E461) binding agents, flavor enhancers and ultra-processed starches.

The company has been selling its products in Israel under the Atid Yarok (Green Future) brand since 2025. In 2023, Prime Minister Netanyahu visited its Rehovot facility, declaring Israel a global leader in the alternative protein market.

šŸ‘‰ Steakholder Foods CEO Arik Kaufman is also known for other simulated food ventures, including lab-grown ā€˜milk’ products (company name Wilk) and a bee-free, cultivated ā€˜honey’ product called Beeio.

The company has partnered with Hollywood’s Ashton Kutcher, music manager Guy Oseary and OpenAI and Anthropic-linked venture capitalist Effie Epstein to provide funding and assist with commercialization.

Meat-free ā€˜meats’ have been a favorite topic of conversation at annual WEF meetings since the late 2010s. Steakholder’s products aren’t even the worst of it, with some firms working on insect or evenĀ synthetic lab-grown meatĀ products using real animal cells.

šŸ‘Ā SubstackĀ |Ā ChatĀ |Ā @geopolitics_prime


One quarter of China's Central Committee is being purged.

Four expelled at the Third Plenary. Ten at the Fourth. More than forty expected at the Fifth Plenary next month. Over fifty-four members of the body that governs 1.4 billion people removed. The Central Committee has 205 members. When the Fifth Plenary is done, more than one in four will be gone. This is not anti-corruption. Anti-corruption doesn't remove a quarter of the governing body. This is institutional reconstruction of a nuclear-armed state. A Taiwan national security official laid out the numbers this week. The source matters. Taiwan's intelligence community tracks CCP internal politics closer than any outside government. This is their assessment, on the record. …

The party itself is the target. The Taiwan official identified three categories of "impurity" Xi is hunting: Impurity in thought disloyalty to Xi personally. Impurity in organization cliques and factions. Impurity in conduct being "pro-US" or harboring illusions about "peaceful evolution." Read that third one again. Pro-American orientation is now a formal purge category. Officials with U.S. institutional relationships financial, educational, professional are being classified as impure. The same pattern as Russia's civic death law, which financially erases citizens who have one foot in each system.


Democrats and Muslim Brotherhood

Clandestine's X post -

BINGO šŸ‘€

We were warned long ago that the Dems were compromised by the Muslim Brotherhood, and now it appears that reality is now ready to enter the mainstream.

Remember Huma? She wasn’t Hillary’s assistant. She was Hillary’s handler. Hillary was just a puppet.

Trump is preparing to show the American People that the Obama administration, and Democrat Party as a whole, has been compromised by our foreign adversaries.

There’s a reason Obama helped Iran obtain nuclear weapons, and there’s a reason the Dems/MSM seem to be on the same side as the Iranian regime. They all serve the same masters.

Or at least they used to. Now they are puppets without strings, after the Saudi corruption purge in 2017.

✨Rapid Response 47 X post -

POTUS on Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed: "He's a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. He said that years ago... You can't have a member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Congress."



A guy who ran against Mitch McConnell had a home invasion where his daughter was murdered. The killer said his cell phone was talking him into it.

From 2022, video of the full police investigation -

Extremely bizarre case. He claimed he did all of this because of a bunker Wesley had at his house to save him from Russian nuclear war. Then the music started talking to him to invade the house and kill them. Interesting that he would enter on the second floor in the daughter's room. At the very end, it said his daughter was an assistant common wealth attorney and worked on the Kentucky human trafficking task force. The case said he shot her over 20 times.. what the hell. Something very strange about this case but he should get the death penalty for threatening and killing the family of someone running for office. This is extremely dangerous for our society and government.


Tucker:

Trump Endorses Netanyahu’s Reelection

Benjamin Netanyahu is running for reelection. He has Donald Trump’s support.


Trump endorsed the alleged Hamas-funding Israeli prime minister on Saturday, writing on Truth Social that Netanyahu is ā€œStrong, Brave, and Brilliantā€ and a ā€œGreat Warrior.ā€ It is undeniably true that he is brilliant at coercing the United States into fighting his wars for him.


No matter what you think of Bibi, everyone knows he is wildly unpopular among Americans. The U.S. public understands how much damage he has caused our country, and regular citizens loathe him for it. Given that fact, why in the world would Trump publicly endorse Netanyahu? The president knew doing so would harm his own popularity, but he did it anyway. What about Israel makes him so submissive?


"PresidentĀ Donald TrumpĀ on Sunday endorsed Israeli Prime MinisterĀ Benjamin NetanyahuĀ in his reelection bid.

In aĀ post to Truth Social, the president applaudedĀ NetanyahuĀ for his continued support of the U.S., including in the war against Iran, as he praised the prime minister for being ā€œa Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran.ā€

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/18/trump-endorses-netanyahu-for-reelection-01125729?


šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ‡®šŸ‡± ā€˜Do you trust Netanyahu?’ — ā€˜I don’t trust anybody’ — Trump

President Donald Trump dismissed the idea of trusting ā€œanybodyā€ in politics.

Also Trump: launched a war on Iran because Bibi told him.

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime


Netanyahu loss makes peace deal with Iran possible

Netanyahu said opposition will create a Palestinian state and withdraw from Lebanon and Syria


šŸ” Epstein scandal widens to Wall Street as Trump ties stay under scrutiny

US lawmakers are opening a new front in the Epstein saga, targeting the banks that handled his money. The New York Times reported that the proposed Epstein Wall Street Records Act would force federal regulators to investigate financial institutions and executives tied to Jeffrey Epstein, release relevant records and refer potential crimes to prosecutors.

šŸ’°Ā The financial trail is hardly trivial: JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America have agreed to pay a combined more than $437 million to settle lawsuits brought by Epstein victims.

Trump remains part of the wider political controversy. Reuters previously reported that Epstein emails released by House Democrats included his claim that Trump ā€œknew about the girls.ā€ The White House denied wrongdoing and said the material did not establish misconduct by Trump.

šŸ“‘ The administration’s cover-up operation of the files has itself drawn enough scrutiny for the Injustice Department inspector general to open a review of how the records were released and redacted.

And the Iran war has not made the scandal disappear. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie put it bluntly:

šŸ’¬ ā€œBombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away.ā€

šŸ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime


Rise of household machines? AI could hijack your smart devices, Anthropic says

šŸ—£ā€œSmall AI models may be months away from being capable enough to self-replicate on commercial internet-of-things (IoT) devices, like smart ovens and…Android TV boxes,ā€ no longer needing access to data centers, and proving impossible to stop, ā€œsince there’s no centralized point to shut off,ā€ new research by Anthropic indicates.

In lab testing, the company found that one simple model was able to ā€œfigure out unfamiliar devices on its ownā€ in 8 of 9 hardware types, and that ā€œif small models improve at their historic rate, they’ll matchā€ the capabilities of more complex models’ potential for self-replication ā€œby the end of this year.ā€

If that happens, it would be the textbook definition of a ā€œwormā€ – a piece of self-replicating malware that can spread from one device to another without any human involvement.

ā€œPrior work has already shown that AI agents can act like [a worm]: scanning their network, executing an exploit, and copying model weights to a target machine across a GPU cluster. Datacenter GPUs would be a clear, high-value target for such malware. But expensive accelerators aren’t strictly necessary,ā€ with ā€œcheap and typically poorly defendedā€ household devices presenting a perfect alternative.

Tech companies spent more than a decade touting the IoT future of smart appliances, thermostats, lighting, home security, televisions, pet tech, wearables, medical devices, vehicles, and even ā€˜smart city’ infrastructure (traffic lights, utilities). Now, Anthropic says this could all be hacked and used by a rouge AI, echoing the warnings of industry whistleblowers.

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Anthropic seeks legal advice to prep AI agents to negotiate on users’ behalf

Anthropic is consulting law firms on how its AI agents should bargain on behalf of people to secure better outcomes, the FT reported.

Whether settling customer disputes, improving salary offers, or haggling over prices, Anthropic wants to establish clear ā€œnegotiation normsā€ for these encounters.

Issues under discussion reportedly include:

āž”ļø how aggressively should agents pursue their user’s interests when facing counterparts with opposing goals

āž”ļø how often should agents they pause to seek users’ input and how much freedom should they be givenĀ 

āž”ļø how to detect dishonest tactics without becoming excessively suspicious of other agents

āž”ļø whether users should provide signed instructions that define an agent’s authority and limits

The company has already tested these ideas.Ā 

In a recent internal experiment, employees used Claude agents – with a track record for going sometimes off-script - to buy and sell books on a virtual trading floor, each agent working from a ranked preference list.Ā 

Agents told to be ā€œruthlessā€ secured slightly better results, while more cooperative ones sometimes accepted less-preferred books so that every participant ended up with something.Ā 

However, there is a downside: trials raised concerns that people with access to stronger models could gain a systematic advantage in agent-to-agent negotiations.

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AI Commentary from someone I know:

China is severely limited in its access to high quality chips and so is pursuing open source AI models, and something that gets called Frugal AI: "The concept parallels the ā€lean manufacturingā€ movement that reshaped the automotive sector in the late 20th century. Instead of building ever‑larger factories, firms focus on eliminating waste, tightening loops, and delivering value in tighter, iterative cycles."

"Four hallmarks define this shift:

  • Performance per Watt becomes a primary KPI alongside accuracy.

  • Application‑layer efficiency outweighs raw benchmark scores.

  • Supply‑chain sovereignty is treated as a risk‑mitigation imperative.

  • Vertical data ownership drives bespoke model development over generic foundation models.

The net effect is an ecosystem where AI is a utility embedded in existing business processes rather than a siloed research platform demanding massive capital outlays."


This is what I've predicted will be the future of AI. The Western model is unsustainable expensive and inefficient by comparison. One Big Best Model is stupid, compared to small, carefully tuned and trained models that are designed to do one thing, and run on a desktop computer.Ā Ā 


China is also the only ones maintaining open source policies on their Android devices like phones and e readers. The West is locking down more and more devices and making them untinkerable. I'm planning on my next device to be a Chinese one simply because I need to actually own my own phone, not have it locked in functionality like an IPhone.

It's definitely worrying. From my perspective, the West is losing the AI battle hard. The only reason it's doing well at all, is that single TSMC foundry in Taiwan. (And hopefully the second one in the USA).Ā 



But Trump and company are seeing AI as something beyond commerce. It is the cornucopia of everything they ever wanted...maybe.


Can Machines Think

Richard Feynman: Can Machines Think?

1985


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