The Desperate Deal - The Art of the Bluff
- Dagny
- 6 hours ago
- 9 min read
🇮🇷 Iran has expressed willingness to transfer its highly enriched uranium out of the country on one condition: it goes to China, not the US. According to Al Hadath citing senior sources.
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Current negotiations with Iran are made difficult b/c the Iranian leaders are afraid to talk on cell phones or meet each other in person, so are resorting to papers sent back and forth by courier.
🚨🇮🇷 US Chief of Naval Operations admits the Navy cannot escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz
Contested escort missions in the strait would exceed the Navy's capacity, Admiral Daryl Caudle told Congress.
"Providing escort services through a contested strait will, in my military opinion, exceed the capacity of the Navy to do that effectively."
The US Chief of Naval Operations just confirmed that Iran's strategy is working despite facing the world's most expensive navy.
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🇮🇷🚢 Navigation data shows 26 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after coordinating with Iran, consistent with the IRGC's statement that the Strait is open under Iranian control.
26 ships in 24 hours is still far below pre-war traffic (~3,000 vessels/month, or ~100/day). The Strait is operating at roughly 25% of normal capacity.
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"We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz" - Trump
"We want the Strait of Hormuz open" - Trump, one minute after he said the US controls the strait
🚨 Acting Navy Secretary confirms Taiwan arms paused to preserve munitions for Iran war
Hung Cao told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee the quiet part out loud: arms shipments to Taiwan are on hold to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran campaign.
🗣 Trump's public explanation was different. At the Beijing summit he told Xi the $14 billion Taiwan weapons package was held "in abeyance" as a negotiating chip.
📹 The actual reason, per his own Navy Secretary: the Iran war is eating through US munitions stocks.
This is precisely the strategic trade-off analysts warned about for months. The Iran war is not just costing money — it's degrading the US's fading hegemony.
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1:18
🇺🇲🇶🇦🇮🇷Reuters is reporting that a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with United States to help secure a deal to end the war with Iran and resolve outstanding issues.
Iran–Oman Hormuz deal could mark another step toward Gulf order free of Western diktat
Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing a permanent toll system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why does this matter?
🌏 Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority has defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area
🌏 Oman is key, as it controls the southern side of the strait and sits right at its entrance
🌏 Oman is said to be in discussions with Iran over a share in revenues from the new fee mechanism, The New York Times reports, citing Iranian officials
🌏 Oman has reportedly recognized the economic benefits of the plan and is now expected to influence its Gulf neighbors—including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—to support the scheme
🌏 Iran and Oman describe the proposed system as "fees" rather than "tolls":
➡️A transit toll for simply passing through the strait would be illegal under international maritime law
➡️Charges for specific services—such as port handling or waste disposal—are legal
🌏 “Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner,” the Iranian ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad, told Bloomberg on May 20
🌏 Donald Trump is opposed to the scheme, but it seems Gulf powers are not listening
New geopolitical order in the Gulf
The Iran–Oman discussions add another layer to the emerging Gulf order, one increasingly shaped without Western influence:
🌏 The US–Israeli war on Iran “has fundamentally altered relations among the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council,” Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reports
🇶🇦 Qatar and Oman oppose the US–Israeli war
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is calling for diplomacy
🇦🇪 The UAE backs the conflict—to its own detriment
🌏 Saudi Arabia is also reportedly discussing a peace pact between Iran and Middle Eastern states, despite Israel’s opposition
🌏 Back in March, Iran proposed a joint security and military alliance with its Arab and Islamic neighbors—without the involvement of “distant” Western powers or Israel
🌏 Major Gulf states are increasingly disappointed with the US: It provides neither reliable military protection nor adequately reflects their concerns
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Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations with Israel until there is an irreversible path leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
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US freezes Israel out of Iran talks – report
The fact that Israel “was cut almost entirely out of the loop on truce talks” between the US and Iran has become “a humbling setback” for PM Benjamin Netanyahu, The New York Times reports.
Key points:
🌏 Donald Trump sees Bibi as a US ally, but not as a close partner in negotiations with the Iranians
🌏 Israel has been demoted from the White House’s equal partner to “something more akin to a subcontractor to the US military”
🌏The Jewish state could face serious implication after “the banishment from the cockpit to economy class”
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🚨🔍 Pentagon is leaking its own stockpile crisis to kill another Iran strike — analyst
Alex Christoforou tells Mario Nawfal the White House is stuck in a full strategic impasse — and the Defense Department is actively working against escalation by feeding depletion reports to the press.
🔶 Pentagon has burned through THAAD interceptors and key munitions stocks — leaks to Washington Post sourced directly from Defense Department insiders trying to block further strikes
🔶 Trump's strategy: wait 3–4 months for Iran's economy to collapse, per CIA assessment
🔶 Iran's counter-strategy: hold the Hormuz blockade until global economic pain forces Washington's hand — effects expected to hit Europe and the US by June
🔶 Netanyahu is pushing for immediate strikes; Trump is looking for a deal. The gap between them is now public
🔶 Regime change via airstrikes is off the table per Pentagon's own assessment — leaving only 2 options: a desperate special forces operation or more strikes that accomplish nothing
"The Pentagon is going to the media telling them: we've depleted our stockpiles. The message is clear — don't strike Iran again."
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🚨🇮🇱🇺🇸 Israel may stage massive false flag terror attack against US: former CIA officer
A tense phone call on Tuesday revealed the growing rift between US President Donald Trump and Islraeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. While Trump, recognising US losses and defeat, is pushing for diplomatically solution, Netanyahu strives for сcontinuation of military aggression, arguing that delay only strengthens Iran.
Netanyahu has shown he is willing to deceive, analysts say. A staged attack on US assets or Gulf allies would end diplomacy and force Trump back into combat.
💬 "Washington is engaged in this conflict at the request of and in the collective self-defence of its Israeli ally," State Department legal adviser Reed Rubinstein claimed despite US continuous sanctions and pressure on Iran.
The war on Iran was planned for decades by both Israel and the US government, which has been saturated with anti-Iran Zionists since the 1970s. Trump claimed Netanyahu never spoke with him about the aggression. Yet records show that a February 11 White House meeting sealed the deal, and US military commanders warned parts of Netanyahu's attack plan being “farcical.”
Now, seeing Trump’s hesitation, Israel reportedly seeks to finish the war on its own.
🔍 Israeli provocation blueprint
On May 17, Israel drone struck an electrical generator outside the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE with an American-made replica called Lucas — a Shahed-136 clone produced by US contractors. However, Iranian military sources identified the real culprit — Israel.
The aim was to blame Iran and provoke UAE, and drag the region into a full-scale war. All while pretending to be a victim.
🤔 The same playbook could be used
On June 8, 1967, during the Six-Day War with Egypt, Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty, a US naval vessel in international waters off Egypt, killing 34 American sailors and wounding 171. Israel claimed the incident was a case of mistaken identity; however, the real goal was to blame Egypt and drag the United States directly into the war. But the plan failed because of the testimony of the sailors.
President Lyndon B. Johnson covered it up and the Israel lobby ensured no accountability.
🙄 Israel has the means, the motive and the history: a false flag attack on US assets or Gulf allies would serve its purpose perfectly.
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🇦🇪| The UAE says 3 drones “from the west” entered its territory and one drone struck the electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, in the Al Dhafra Region.
How pro-Israel shadow group runs influence op inside Trump’s White House
Vine & Fig Tree (VFT), a pro-Israel nonprofit with Trump administration ties, is running a domestic surveillance and propaganda campaign against America First conservatives, writes user GenXGirl in an investigative report on Substack.
👉 Citing revelations by ex-Pentagon correspondent Gabrielle Cuccia, the report exposes how private pro-Israel networks operate inside the White House, using AI media, data operations, narrative policing, and national security language to monitor and counter US citizens.
VFT is described as recently meeting with National Security Council (NSC) counterterror director Sebastian Gorka at the White House.
Shortly afterward, Cuccia was approached through a supposedly ‘America First Christian’ intermediary and asked to ghostwrite scripts for AI-generated political videos.
📹 The videos were allegedly meant to appear organic and independent — not connected to the White House or NSC.
The correspondent turned whistleblower was given a Dropbox link.
🔴 Inside were reportedly internal VFT strategy memos, polling data, and seven folders of surveillance reports targeting conservative voices: Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens, Jackson Hinkle, Mario Nawfal, and more
🔴 The documents frame growing skepticism of Israel, foreign aid, and endless Middle East wars as “foreign malign influence” tied to Russia, Iran, China, or Pakistan
🔴 At the center of the operation is Zach Schapira — former Twitter/X Trust & Safety executive, IDF commander, Times of Israel contributor, and VFT-linked analyst
🔴 Schapira’s work repeatedly pushes the idea that anti-Israel sentiment inside the conservative movement is driven by foreign psyops rather than genuine US dissent
🔴 VFT also reportedly collaborates with NCRI, the censorship-linked NGO behind multiple controversial “hate speech” and “foreign influence” reports cited in congressional hearings
🔴 VFT’s playbook seemingly urges the use of burner accounts, AI videos, and audience segmentation
The report promises more leaks exposing the Israel-aligned shadow group nestled inside the White House.
⚠️🇮🇱 Israel’s digital death squad 545 stalks US anti-Iran war voices – Alex Jones
Israeli information warfare unit ‘Project 545’ has been greenlit to digitally harass prominent American talk show hosts and journalists, says Alex Jones.
💬 “The Israeli government funded publicly $500 million for these particular units, and ‘545’ got $123 million of it just last year,” he notes.
He points to Trump’s counterterrorism czar Sebastian Gorka as having “kicked it up a notch.”
🔊 “He basically declares us foreign intelligence assets of Iran and Russia so that the US government can work in disinformation, dirty trade campaigns, censorship, bot farms against us, all of it. And that's what 545 does.”
Jones says the information comes from a former Pentagon correspondent whistleblower and corroborating public records.
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👺 Fox News appearance of ex-Deputy Commander of US Central Command stuns users
Instead of discussing Robert Harward’s view on the US-Iran standoff, many users immediately pointed to “the neck line” and started speculating that it was an actor wearing a face mask.
Neither Harward nor Fox News has yet commented on the matter.
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Important: This guy was saying that Trump should not make the deal... Use military power... The Israeli position.
✍️✊ Carlson defends genocide comment in heated exchange with Israeli host
An Israeli news anchor pressed Tucker Carlson for labeling Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide.
Tucker didn't blink and fired back: "You're more upset by how I describe the murder of children than you are at the murder of children, which says a lot."
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Tucker Carlson on Israeli Channel 13:
🇺🇸🇮🇱Tucker Carlson:
I don't think killing children is self-defense. It never will be.
And no amount of recounting the legitimate atrocities of October 7th will ever get me to accept this behavior from the Israeli government, from the US government, from the Iranian government, or any government. It's always wrong.
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🇺🇸🇮🇱Tucker Carlson on Israeli Channel 13:
I think as an Israeli, you should pause before using the phrase “terror regime” since you live in a country that just murdered thousands of children in Gaza.
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